NOAA predicts above-normal 2007 hurricane season
Hurricane Rita in 2005 made landfall near the Texas/ Lousiana border. (NOAA image)
(June 1, 2007) As hurricane season officially begins, NOAA scientists are predicting that 2007 has a 75% chance of being an above–normal year for hurricanes in the Atlantic. These scientists have predicted 13 to 17 named storms for 2007, in contrast to 11 named storms in an average season.
The experts at NOAA say that this prediction is an indication that “the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong.”
“For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above–normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi–decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer–than–normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle, according to NOAA.
However, some scientists continue to believe there is a link between global warming and stronger hurricanes.
With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane–prone regions to begin their preparation plans.
Read the announcement: NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Read more from NOAA: 2007 Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA National Hurricane Center
Dear Deborah,
Perhaps you can assist in deepening our understanding of something that is worrisome.
Day after day, morning, noon and night, we receive reports from mass media meteorologists about the weather. Mostly, they make happy talk about the what is happening, and about to happen in the near future, with regard to Earth’s weather conditions.
Why, pray tell me, are there no open and public discussions among these experts of weather science regarding global warming? We have a Weather Channel but meteorologists cannot be found speaking of global warming or the potential implications of climate change for life as we know it on Earth.
Despite the presence of hundreds of meteorologists among us, I can recall only one weather scientist, who incidentally does remind me of Rachel Carson, who has been willing to speak out clearly and loudly to the human community on the subject; however, I have not seen her face again on TV or even heard her name mentioned in the weather reports provided by the mass media. You may recall the name of this uncommon person. She is Dr. Heidi Cullen.
Perhaps scientists like Heidi Cullen can assure the legacy of Rachel Carson. If not Dr. Cullen, then who? If not now, then when? It appears to me that time is short. The immanent words of Seneca (3BC – 65AD) could hold meaning for humanity now more than ever before, “While we are postponing, life speeds by.”
Sincerely,
Steve
Hello Steve! I don’t know how often Heidi Cullen is on television, but she continues to blog. Here’s a post from here, from earlier this week: IS IT WET OR DRY? GREENLAND’S SNOW SPEAKS VOLUMES
I believe that many are trying to speak. There are just so many voices speaking at once …
Deborah
Thanks Deborah.
Somehow, at some point in time, hopefully sooner rather later, the “many voices speaking at once” will come together for the sake of sensibly sharing good science instead of senselessly shouting at one another.
Always,
Steve
NOaa predicted an above active hurricane season last year too. but it was mild. how do we know who to listen to? I might as well read the Farmer’s Almanac.
Karen, the Farmer’s Almanac has some good stuff in it! I’m a big believer in folk wisdom.
As for the predictions of the experts … yes, they are just predictions. Last year, an unexpected El Nino developed, which caused the hurricane season to be very mild in 2006, instead of more active than usual, as predicted.
How do we know who to listen to? There’s no one who can predict these things with certainty. But science surely has the best shot at making predictions that might come to pass. For this year’s hurricane season, for example, the prediction is for an above-average season. If I lived near the coast, I would prepare … and if the season is mild, no harm done.
All the best,
Deborah