Don't notice climate change yet? You will.
To read more from scientists on global warming, go to the Earth & Sky homepage.
Guest post from Bruce Wielicki, Principal Investigator for CERES, a NASA project that uses Earth–orbiting satellites to monitor how clouds affect our climate.
Climate change is already here, it is above the natural variability of the climate system, and the greenhouse gases that we emit from burning fossil fuels are the primary reason.
The clear early signals are at the largest time scales (decades) and space scales (global mean, polar mean, tropical mean). But these signals are still too subtle for you to see clearly in your own city or town: natural variability in regional climate in a single month for a single city is much larger than natural variability for a ten year average over the entire Earth. As a result, it may seem very confusing to hear most scientists say the signals are clear and inescapable (e.g recent IPCC report) when your local changes are still less than the natural year to year variability according to your local weatherman or state climatologist.
But this is no different in principle than other complex systems you are already much more familiar with: such as economics. Your day to day household budgets are highly variable (weather) and include major storms like a car suddenly failing and needing replacement. But your local annual city budget is much more stable because it is the average experience of 1000s of peoples individual budgets, much like climate is the average of a large number of weather events. The annual state budget is more stable yet, and by the time we talk about annual gross national product: a 1% change from expectations is suddenly a signal of large significance and concern.
So when you see climate signals discussed in reports like the IPCC, remember that climate scientists are basing these on the big picture, and that “global warming” does not mean uniform temperature change over the entire Earth. The climate system is sufficiently complex that like the economic analogy: it does not do anything in a simple uniform way. So even when the global average temperature is increasing, a few places will actually be cooling. The scientific debate is shifting from whether mankind is causing climate change (we are), to how large a change we can expect in the future, how fast climate will change, and what the regional impacts will be. In the coming decades, even regional climate change will reach levels that exceed natural variability. In some areas like the polar regions, it already has. This will be much easier for the public to understand as their own regional climate change becomes increasingly obvious. But we cannot wait that long to act.
The recent IPCC report is the best wisdom of thousands of climate scientists around the world and takes several years to go through development and peer review. The IPCC Summary for Policymakers can be downloaded from the web and is the best single source of information on what is known or unknown. This issue is so important that we cannot afford to listen to individual scientists (myself included!) because their viewpoint will be too narrow. Unfortunately many news stories will highlight the views of one or a few scientists as if their perspective should carry equal weight with the international IPCC report. This has caused undue confusion for many years and will continue to do so. Hopefully not everyone will wait to see the effects in their own backyard before choosing to act.
Bruce Wielicki of NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virgina is the Principal Investigator for CERES, a project now using four instruments on two different Earth–orbiting satellites to monitor how clouds affect our climate.
OF COURSE we’re experiencing global warming. The only ones denying that are Conservatives and Bush-loyal Republicans. The bigger question remains, because Bush will be out of office in less than 2 years: what are we ALL going to do about it? We all must think globally and act locally.
Contact the Church of Global Warming for your sackcloth and ration of 1 ton of carbon per year.
I also ask, what do we do as individuals? I am Australian, which highlights our global problem.
I cannot cease using a car to run my business, as this would prevent me from contributing to society and supporting my family. I can be careful with electricity use, but cannot stop using it. I can look at ways to reduce waste, but again society forces me to generate a portion of waste products.
While individuals can make a collective difference, the biggest changes must come from governments globally. More so those countries that do act must do enough to cover those that do nothing, as well as force them to comply.
Stop using fossil fuels, turn to clean methods such as wind and solar. The cost is nothing, if governments can afford space programs, they can afford programs to save the world.
I’m also Australian and there are a number of strategies:
For electricity you can purchase green energy.
I also save electricity by using compact fluoros, and use laptop computers instead of desktop. Turn off anything not in use. Purchase white goods with good energy ratings.
We compost. It’s really easy, and be aware of packaging that you buy with your groceries. Compost really cuts down your wastage.
The way you drive can cut your petrol usage. If you can, use public transport or ride. A lot of things are habits.
For the rest you can become carbon neutral by this
We’re all doing here what is the most important first step! We’re becoming more aware … and we’re talking to each other.
Talking, and working together, is going to be the key.
As a boy in N Ohio my father showed me evidence of where the polar ice had pushed into our area and finally stopped and started to receed. Areas where Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago now reside were under the great ice cap. Now I understand that this was only 20.000 years ago. The blink of an eye. 10,000 years ago the ice was up into Canada and the Great Lakes were formed. Obviously, in a very short period of time, there’s been a lot of melting going on. What was the situation 5k years, 2k years ago. And you need to tell us; when did it stop or has it in fact stopped. Some parsing of words is going on which is disturbing. We hear the thread of what Man’s contribution is to the warming. The words indicate that there are other factors involved other than man. Scientists need to tell us very loudly what the estimate is. I have read that it is probably less than 1%; so rounded to 1% is probably a good number. If Mans contrubition is really only 1% you need to be spending more efforts in how we survive in a warmer world. If many scientists are willing to scare the H out of us and not strongly explain the 99%, it is no other than a great hoax.
George, you bring up an excellent point.
Scientists do not know all the answers. But they’re not trying to perpetuate a hoax. Please believe that!
I don’t know where you heard that humans contribution to the present excess warming is less than 1%. I can’t imagine any scientist making an estimate like that, partly because it sounds much much too small … and partly because it’s such a precise number … I would ask, “1% of what?” We aren’t even sure of the baseline, since climate record-keeping has only in the past few decades become “accurate” in our modern sense of that word.
We’re talking here about a big complex system with a lot of unknowns.
Let’s ask the question another way. We asked two scientists recently, “What would the climate be doing if there were no humans on Earth?”
Both pointed out how difficult it is to answer that question. We just don’t know enough about solar variability, the patterns of El Ninos, the effect of volcanic eruptions, how clouds fit into the picture, the long cycles of ice ages, and so on to be able to predict.
You asked specifically about ice ages. It’s thought that the last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago. It’s thought that we’re about midway between ice ages now … another one should come in perhaps another 10,000 years. But has the shift toward a new ice age already begun? That question cannot be answered. We simply don’t know.
Scientists are not all-knowing. They are trying their best to tell us that human activities are adding excess greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and that this fact should be causing Earth to warm. And in fact Earth is warming very rapidly.
The warming caused by humans is added onto – superimposed – by warming or cooling of the Earth caused by natural cycles.
Deborah
I agree with Matt Rees. We should be thinking of more ways to survive in the warmer climates., on how to grow food in these warmer climates. The scientists are trying to find evidence of life on other planets. Maybe we should start building on one of the most habitable one? Maybe the movie with Pauly Shore living in a biodome isn’t too far fetched? Clearly funds for projects such as these can be scraped up! In the meantime my family and I will do our best to do our part in saving energy and recycling.
In about 1000 AD, the world was a warmer place. England had large grape fields that could not grow in today’s cooler climate. The same is true of Nova Scotia- The vikings found grapes growing there. There are many cycles of warm and cold in the global climate. Some last a year or two -El Nino and La Nina cycles. Some last decades ( in the 1930’s and 1970’s the concern was global cooling and a return of the Ice Age). Some last thousands of years. The earth has been emerging from a “mini-ice age” that started quite suddenly almost 1000 years ago. At the time, it started snowing in places where the local population had no record of it snowing before. There were also wetter, cooler summers all over Europe. Now the climate is in a warming trend, and there is nothing that we can do to stop it, because we did not change it. One of the “greenhouse” gasses, methane, has been decreasing for about 20 years. From the research I did for a term paper at a university, my opinion is that man’s activities have had only a small effect, if any, on the global climate. I started out with the opinion that man’s activities were changing the climate, but that all changed after my research. Some people have blinders on, and only pick out “facts” that support the current hysteria about the climate. These people can include educated scientists, many who have received grants from organizations that have a political agenda that “global warming” hysteria will support. The “Politically Correct” crowd can follow like lemmings their leaders that will tell them that only more government intervention and control of a person’s private life will solve the problem. I am in favor of a more rational approach. Look at the global climate as a dynamic and not static system. Produce and use energy in a responsible mannor, including increasing the use of renewable sources, but don’t put us back in the stone age.
I hate hearing that man’s burning of fossil fuel is creating all of this global warming. If that is the case then how can anyone explain the cyclical warming and cooling of the planet before humans were using fossil fuels?
I was watching a program on our Sun on the discovery science channel the other day. A scientist on there had no explanation of why our Sun, which should be in a more dormant state, is highly active. I wonder if that close gigantic star emmiting tons of radation towards our earth has anything to do with our planet heating up?
Please people, before you jump on the Al Gore global warming bandwagon do a bit of research.
We have an option of ignoring the current scientific community and suffering dire consequences – IF they are right, OR, become a part of increasing efforts to curb consumption, reduce waste, and enjoy the benefits of a healthier environment as a result.
The tragedy of the commons is the multiplied effects of simple actions that one wouldn’t think makes much of a detrimental impact. Multiplying energy-saving efforts, consumer savvy, and healthful efforts by the millions v. waste and needless consumption, and realize the benefits. The hand-built solar, and hand-built windmill(electrical) generator I made, and composting alone has cut our yearly energy consumption by over 50%. Solar/thermal retention is this summer’s project, along with DC/LED lighting conversion. We’re in MN.
We have everything to gain by becoming a more environmentally friendly, global society.
Dear Gary M,
You are surely a part of the answer to the problems we are facing. At the individual level, people like you will show the rest of us the way forward. But an adequate response by billions of human beings to their personal challenges is not going to provide the entire solution. If individuals did everything that they could reasonably do, they could not by themselves address the global challenges before humanity in these early years of Century XXI.
There is a second level of human activity that is occurring as a result of the mechanization of production capabilities worldwide. Gigantic, multinational corporations are engaged in industrial activities that are devouring Earth’s scarce resources and polluting its ecosphere. I imagine you and most other people would agree with me on that point.
At their current scale and rate of growth, these huge economic enterprises may inevitably go the way of the dinosaurs because the resources of Earth that literally “feed” their seemingly endless growth are limited. Only if the Earth was some sort of eternally providing, maternal teat at which the human species suckled could such a scenario work much longer. The illusion of Earth as a cornucopia containing unlimited supplies can be maintained only so long as natural resources are abundantly available and the integrity of Earth and its ecosystems is not impaired. Today, it is evident from the explosion of evidence of global warming, the depletion of vital cheap resources like oil and potable water, and the precipitous extirpation of biodiversity that natural resources are being recklessly dissipated and frangible ecosystems are being rapidly, if not irreversibly, degraded by the activities of unbridled, large-scale economic globalization.
This is all to say one thing rather simply. The small planet God has blessed us to inhabit cannot much longer sustain the maximum exploitation of Earth’s body by endlessly enlarging the number and size of the industries now overspreading the Earth. Infinite economic growth in a finite world is patently unsustainable.
Always,
Steve
JD : Cyclical warming in prehistoric times occured because of co2 levels, new research supports that. If you want i can look up the scientific articles that wrote about the scientists who discovered that.
here’s the gist of it:
There is ‘‘scientific’‘ proof (always take that with a grain of salt) that co2 levels where low many years before the ice ages began, which started the ice ages (it was cool), but during the ice ages the co2 levels slowly rose, gradually making it warmer, and so finally it ended the ice ages
I also believe that the suns great activity is causing global warming today of some degree – even mars is heating up -. So that about proves it in my book.
As many of you, i fear for the future, for myself and children i hope i will have one day. I am just 17 years old, and so i expect to be scorned by some of you, as that happens all too often when you are young like me and ‘‘pretend’‘ to know something of a subject. And i do believe i know quite alot about this subject. I do not live in America, i am a Dane, so spare me Leftwing -Rightwing comments. I read Al Gores book, JD. It is decent, but it scares you, i am sure you would agree, which is not how it should be. However, i believe his intentions are good.
It has now been proven that global warming today is mostly due to mankind. ( i believe it is something akin to 90 %)
Biggest causes:
1. Massive Deforestation; (In South America and a little bit in Amerika, Afrika, and countries in Thailand) Forests are being razed, using slash and burn tactics and so much has allready been lost. The world loses more trees every year, and it is commonly known that trees are carbon sinks, since they store it in themselves. The good news is that forests are growing in china, and europe. Brazil and the Amazon loses less forests each year, ( atleast it has in the last 2 years) and some scientists has stated that they believe we may be on a turning point where the worlds forest cover may indeed start to grow again instead of shrink. Even the us is showing some promise with more and more people demanding good care of forests used in the paper/pulp industries. Brazil may take action soon to provide alot of protection of its forests, and the country indonesia, which is in the top 10 of co2 emissioners, are planning to reforestate much of its forests. The new carbon market may soon also work in the way that rich western cultures pay Brazil an Indonesia to stop choppin down their forests. ( i cant quite believe what its called) globally, deforestation accounts for 30 % of all co2 output.
Coal, automobiles, amazing waste of pretty much everything, etc.(thanks USA)
also constitutes for an incredibly amount of co2 output.
Dead zones are occuring in the oceans (no oxygen.. and they are growing, and are very big)
Fish stocks are collapsing
the ocean is turning acid, which will probably result in mass extinction globally if it continues. (in the oceans)
We put more co2 % wise in the air each year.
Deserts are growing
The tropical rainforests may be gone by 2080 if we dont stop global warming
And the worst –
When it gets too hot, the snow in siberia and canada will melt, releasing huge amounts of methane (this is actually allready happening) that has been trapped under the ice for centuries. This will heat up the atmosfere so much that the oceans will stop taking in co2 and start releasing it instead. When it gets too hot, trees actually release co2 too. So if we get to that turning point – we are doomed. Theres nothing to it. We will in all probability kill of most life on earth, except very small organisms.
And you know… the earth is heating up awfully quick, and the heating up is escalating. if we get to 2-3 celcius it will be almost too much. 2-3 celcius in 300 years is what… a 1 000 000 times faster than the last time it became so hot? (if it becomes so hot, it will be like in the varmest period when the dinosaurs still lived.)
Sounds pretty horrible and bleak doesnt it? I told you – scare tactics. But that doesnt make it any less true.
The world may actually soon realise this. I think 2007 might be the turning point we need.
You know whats good?
Alternative energi is booming (30 % each year)
and there might soon be actual, driveable, electrical cars..
Thinking about General Motors’s Volt. That will be amazing.
Everywhere the world is waking up to the challenge.
-Sweden has even declared that it will be oil free in the next 15 years. Now that is a great goal.
-China is helping alternative energy boom.
-Iceland is gonna be oil free 2050, atleast for all automobiles.
-New types of alternative energy has been invented, that simulates natural procedures, and will be on market 2012 if all goes as planned
- The wavebreaker technology might soon be viable.
-I talked about reforestation earlier. Estimates is, if it actually turns around, we will have 10-15% more forests by 2050.
-We will in all probability make sure the fish stocks dont collapse completely
- Our knowledge about the environment will grow, our technology will become better.
- recent political developments in the US might lead to some actual clima talk
- Bush will soon get thrown out, a major improvement.
- America could actually end its dependence on oil using the same amount of money as was spended in 2004-2005 on that horrible war.
And the amount could be spread over 10 years.
- As time goes by, so does alternative energy become cheaper, more effective and more appealing to all. That is why it is booming. This development will not cease to continue, it will only grow stronger, as logic dictates.
- The human survival instinct is very strong. If we really go so far as to create very serious consequenses for ourselves, very drastical action will be taken to prevent further damage. nobody wants to kill of our whole species.
What do you think? did i make any valid points? please do comment.
So many good points. So wonderfully well put. Thanks.