Ten-second earthquake warning
(Credit: USGS.)
An earthquake early warning system is being developed in the U.S. for southern California.
Earth & Sky spoke with Earth scientist Richard Allen of UC Berkeley.
Richard Allen: We need to move forward in the U.S. and implement a system before the next earthquake occurs, not after it.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 99 percent chance of a major earthquake, magnitude 6.7 or higher, striking California within the next 30 years. Allen and colleagues tested a warning method using a network of seismic stations during an earthquake late 2007 in the Bay area.
Richard Allen: The way that the system worked is that it detected the beginning of the earthquake. With just one, two, or three seconds worth of data, it accurately predicted the distribution of ground-shaking from that earthquake. And that would mean that San Francisco and Oakland could have about 10 seconds of warning.
These are just tests, though. Allen said that the U.S. doesn’t yet have a way to warn the public of a coming earthquake.
Richard Allen: And what I mean by that is that we have a system in place that brings the data in real time from the seismometers to processing centers at UC Berkeley and at the USGS. But we have no system in place to then pass that information on to anybody.
Allen recommends upgrading and expanding the nearly 300 seismic stations in California closer to Japan’s system of about 1000 stations.
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