Ice-free Arctic. Not whether, but when.
Arctic sea ice: how much longer? (Photo: NOAA)
Walt Meier: Pretty much all sea-ice scientists looking at this are in agreement that we’re going to reach a point where we’ll have an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summertime.
That’s Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder. He said the trend of Arctic sea ice melting in the summer is accelerating.
Walt Meier: What we’re seeing happening now as we’re heading towards an ice-free Arctic is unprecedented at least in several thousand years.
Climate models have predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the end of this century.
Walt Meier: But those climate models are all going far too slow compared to what we’ve actually been seeing happening over the last 30 years. So, based on the observations that we have, we’re looking perhaps within the next 20 to 30 years.
But could it be faster? A few have suggested 5 years from now.
Walt Meier: Now that’s pretty extreme, but it’s not a crazy idea anymore, it’s not something that’s out of the realm of possibility. If these scientists had said that by 2013 the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free in summer, if they had said that 5 years ago to a room full of scientists, they would have been laughed out of the room. But now no one’s laughing.
Dr. Meier added that melting Arctic sea ice will have global impacts since Earth’s climate system is just one system around the world.
Walt Meier: Even 20 to 30 years is pretty short in a climate sense. That’s one generation, that’s something that a lot of people living today will be dealing with.
i suspect i was the first voice to point out that the observed rate of sea ice decline was accelerating naturally and would if sustained be finished as early as 2012. that appears to be still happening.
however, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has recently switched back to cooling and if that is the driving factor, next year will be a year of significant ice gain. If not, then prepare to go sailing.
i suspect i was the first voice to point out that the observed rate of sea ice decline was accelerating naturally and would if sustained be finished as early as 2012. that appears to be still happening.
however, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has recently switched back to cooling and if that is the driving factor, next year will be a year of significant ice gain. If not, then prepare to go sailing.
i suspect i was the first voice to point out that the observed rate of sea ice decline was accelerating naturally and would if sustained be finished as early as 2012. that appears to be still happening.
however, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has recently switched back to cooling and if that is the driving factor, next year will be a year of significant ice gain. If not, then prepare to go sailing.
I suspect either the author was smoking funny cigs or he needs to have his Lithium checked since an Ice Breaker got stuck in Artic Ice.
A.P. — you can’t deny that we have much less Arctic sea ice than in 1979 and that the trend has been downward. See the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s press release for all the evidence you need: “Arctic Sea Ice Down to Second-Lowest Extent, Likely Record-Low Volume,” http://nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html
-Dan Kulpinski
Dan: When the people at GISS who are sounding the global warming alarm bells are caught lying, excuse me, without proper quality control methods (HA!), how can you believe what is right and what is wrong?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml
Could we start feeding polar bears? We feed cattle on the plains when the weather is cold. I am a teacher so I could spend a few weeks during the Summer to do this and would be willing to donate money to do it. I hate to see these pictures of the bears swimming and coming ashore tired and too weak to catch walruses. It is heartbreaking.